Fri, Dec 19, 2014 01:55
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Texas Economy Sucks A Bit Less Than The National Economy
Texas Economy Sucks A Bit Less Than The National Economy | economics, economist, economic forecast, economic model, Texas, teacher, technology, commodity,

Look into the crystal ball, dig your hand deep into the bull’s entrails, watch the tea leaves swirl on the bottom of the cup.  

Chaos in the middle east. Oil goes up.  Hit for business. Good for West Texas.

Commodity prices go up.  Hit for business.

Texas universities face cuts from the legislators in Austin.  Bad for long term business. Bad for technology and emerging technology, the creator of wealth.

Texas Tech gives its coach a $500,000 raise after barely making a bowl game, a little more than a year after firing its most successful football coach in its history. Good for pundits. Bad for professor morale.

 The economy is doing better compared to 2008 and 2009, some economists say.  Oh. Well. That’s useful information. Not.  

The Texas energy sector is growing, other economists say.  Yes. Well. Tell us something we didn’t know.

Real estate, finance, insurance? Well. The fact is, signals are mixed. Some tank. Some grow.  Just like any year.  The bottom line:  No one knows.

Manufacturing?  We still have some of that?  Yes, well, what hasn’t crossed over the maquiladoras is hanging in there.  Predictions mixed.

Jobs? We’re turning into service workers.  We’re turning into a version of Douglas Adams’ universe.  Glad to be of service.

Texas state’s budget situation means several thousand state jobs will be cut.  Yes.  That’s disturbing.  That’s upsetting.

  Medicaid cuts and Medicare provider reimbursement cuts will lead to some hospitals closing down, and gasp, even some doctors losing their jobs.  Now you’ve got our attention.

  And what jobs depend on these jobs?  What’s the multiplier effect?  The state’s economists bandy figures about like theologians bandy empirical dogmatism.

One thing you can count on:  the certainty of different economists making their predictions heightens the uncertainty. 

.Toss the crystal ball into the trash, wash your hands, wash the teacup. Gear up for a rough ride.